Recent research conducted in the Guder watershed of Ethiopia has unveiled significant trends in land use and land cover (LULC) changes, with implications that reverberate throughout the water, sanitation, and drainage sectors. The study, led by Sintayehu Fetene Demessie from the College of Business, Technology and Vocational Education at Kotebe University of Education and the Africa Center of Excellence for Climate-Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation at Haramaya University, utilized advanced machine learning techniques to assess historical changes and predict future scenarios.
From 1985 to 2021, the Guder watershed experienced a dramatic transformation. Cultivated land surged from 54.8% to 72.9%, while built-up areas skyrocketed by an astonishing 227.5%. Conversely, forest cover plummeted from 35.9% to a mere 9%. “These shifts in land use not only reflect human activity but also indicate a pressing need for strategic interventions in environmental management,” Demessie stated.
The research harnessed remote sensing and GIS technologies, alongside Google Earth Engine for cloud-based data processing, to create a robust framework for understanding LULC dynamics. By employing Random Forest machine learning for historical classification and artificial neural networks via QGIS’s MOLUSCE tool for future predictions, the study provides a comprehensive view of how land cover is expected to evolve. Projections indicate that by 2039 and 2057, shrubland, forest, and grassland will continue to decline, while cultivated and built-up areas will expand further.
With the built-up area projected to increase from 0.8% in 2021 to 3.6% by 2057, the implications for water and sanitation infrastructure are profound. Urban expansion necessitates enhanced drainage systems and sustainable water management practices to prevent flooding and ensure clean water access. “Understanding these trends is crucial for developing effective land management strategies that prioritize sustainability,” Demessie emphasized.
The findings of this research not only contribute to environmental awareness but also highlight the commercial opportunities for businesses involved in water management and urban planning. As municipalities grapple with the consequences of rapid urbanization, the demand for innovative solutions in drainage and sanitation will only grow.
This study, published in ‘Environmental Challenges,’ underscores the critical intersection of land use dynamics and water resource management. As Ethiopia faces increasing pressures from climate change and population growth, the insights gained from this research will be vital for fostering sustainable practices in the water, sanitation, and drainage sectors. For more information on Sintayehu Fetene Demessie’s work, you can visit lead_author_affiliation.
