In the heart of Iran’s arid Kerman Province, a pressing water crisis is unfolding, one that could have significant implications for the energy sector and beyond. The province’s groundwater aquifers have been steadily depleting, and if left unchecked, the consequences could be dire. However, a groundbreaking study led by Seyed Hamed Moosavirad, a researcher at the Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, offers a beacon of hope. Moosavirad and his team have developed a dynamic model to understand and manage urban water consumption, providing a roadmap for sustainable water resource preservation.
The study, published in the journal ‘آب و توسعه پایدار’ (Water and Sustainable Development), employs System Dynamics (SD) modeling using Vensim PLE+ software to simulate urban water consumption patterns. The results are stark: between 2011 and 2021, the gap between urban water supply and demand peaked at a staggering 61 million cubic meters. This disparity underscores the urgent need for effective water management strategies.
Moosavirad’s research identifies several key policies that could mitigate this crisis. “Artificial groundwater recharge” emerges as the most promising solution, with the potential to boost Kerman’s water resources by over 100 million cubic meters annually. Other strategies, such as separating drinking water from non-potable water, managing network losses, controlling subsidized water prices, and altering household consumption patterns, also show significant promise.
The commercial impacts for the energy sector are profound. Water is a critical resource for energy production, and a sustainable water management strategy could ensure the stability of power generation in the region. As Moosavirad notes, “Modeling a complex system like urban water consumption using SD simplifies understanding of the model, identifies critical variables, tests solutions, and can serve as a useful management tool for decision-makers.”
This research not only addresses the immediate water crisis in Kerman but also sets a precedent for other arid regions facing similar challenges. By providing a comprehensive framework for understanding and managing urban water consumption, Moosavirad’s work could shape future developments in water resource management globally. The study highlights the importance of integrating advanced modeling techniques with practical policy recommendations, offering a holistic approach to sustainable water management.
