Alexandria’s Shifting Ground Threatens Energy Infrastructure

In the bustling coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, a silent threat is brewing beneath the surface, compounding the already pressing issue of sea level rise. A groundbreaking study led by Rejoice Thomas, a researcher at Chapman University’s Earth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab and Schmid College of Science and Technology, has unveiled a disturbing trend of land instability that could have profound implications for the region’s strategic and commercial interests, particularly in the energy sector.

Alexandria, a vital hub for trade and industry, is not just battling the encroaching Mediterranean Sea but also grappling with a shifting landscape. Using advanced satellite techniques, Thomas and her team measured Line of Sight (LOS) displacements, essentially tracking how the land is moving. The results were alarming: displacements ranging from -14.0 to 6.7 millimeters per year, with low-lying and built-up areas showing the most significant changes. “The data suggests that human activities are likely contributing to this instability,” Thomas noted, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable urban planning.

The study employed Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) and the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) method to create a detailed map of the city’s topography and project future changes. This innovative approach allowed the team to generate a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the year 2040, providing a stark glimpse into Alexandria’s hydrological future. The projected DEM revealed dynamic changes in stream networks, with streams shifting and widening, indicating altered hydrological conditions due to increased urban runoff or changes in the natural watershed.

For the energy sector, these findings are particularly concerning. The instability of the land could jeopardize the integrity of critical infrastructure, including power plants, pipelines, and refineries. As the land shifts and the sea encroaches, the risk of damage and disruption to energy supplies increases, potentially leading to significant economic losses and energy shortages.

Moreover, the study found that sea surface temperatures and sea levels are projected to rise until the end of the century, increasing the likelihood of intense tropical-like hurricane events, known as “medicanes.” These storms could further exacerbate the damage to energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages and hampering recovery efforts.

Thomas’s research, published in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observations and Geoinformation, offers a framework for comprehensive land stability assessments, demonstrating the scalability of the applied methodologies. This work could revolutionize how cities approach urban planning and infrastructure development, especially in coastal regions.

As the world grapples with the impacts of climate change, this study serves as a wake-up call for Alexandria and other vulnerable cities. By understanding and addressing land instability, communities can better prepare for the challenges ahead, ensuring the resilience of their infrastructure and the safety of their residents. The energy sector, in particular, must take heed of these findings, investing in robust, adaptable infrastructure that can withstand the dual threats of sea level rise and land instability. The future of Alexandria—and cities like it—depends on it.

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