In the quest to improve water supply forecasting, a new study suggests that strategic snow monitoring could be a game-changer, particularly for the energy sector. Published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, the research led by Mark S. Raleigh from the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University, challenges the conventional approach of basin-wide snow mapping.
Traditionally, water supply forecasting in the Western United States has relied on ground-based stations measuring snow water equivalent. These measurements are strongly correlated with streamflow volume during spring and summer. However, these stations are sparse and sample only small areas. This has sparked interest in spatially complete, basin-wide mapping using airborne surveys or future satellite missions. But according to Raleigh and his team, this might not be the most effective approach.
The study found that adding strategic measurements at ‘snow hotspots’—localized areas with untapped information for predicting streamflow—consistently outperforms basin-wide surveys. “We found that by leveraging existing stations and expanding snow measurements to the right places, rather than everywhere, we can significantly improve water supply prediction,” Raleigh explained.
The research showed that hotspot monitoring increases correlations with streamflow volume by 11-14% (median) across 390 basins, compared to just 4% from basin-wide surveys. This finding holds true across different snowpack datasets, skill metrics, and statistical models.
For the energy sector, this research could have significant commercial impacts. Accurate water supply forecasting is crucial for hydropower generation, which relies on consistent water flow. By improving the precision of these forecasts, energy companies can better plan their operations, optimize power generation, and potentially reduce costs.
Moreover, this research could shape future developments in the field. It suggests that instead of investing in costly, basin-wide mapping, resources could be better spent on targeted, strategic monitoring. This approach could lead to more efficient use of funds and more accurate predictions.
As Raleigh put it, “The greatest gains in water supply prediction come from leveraging existing stations and expanding snow measurements to the right places, rather than everywhere.” This insight could pave the way for more effective water management strategies in the future.
Published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, which translates to “Communications Earth & Environment” in English, this study offers a promising new direction for water supply forecasting. As the energy sector continues to grapple with the challenges of water management, this research could provide valuable insights and tools for improving forecasting accuracy and operational efficiency.