In the heart of Sudan, Greater Khartoum has been undergoing a silent transformation, one that has been meticulously documented and analyzed in a groundbreaking study published in ‘Cogent Social Sciences’ (which translates to ‘Connected Social Sciences’). The research, led by Ismail Abdalla Idris from the School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, offers a detailed look at the urban expansion of Khartoum over the past four decades.
Using nine temporal Landsat images spanning from 1982 to 2022, Idris and his team employed the random forest classification algorithm to detect and analyze changes in land use and land cover (LULC). The study reveals a stark picture of urban growth, with the built-up area expanding from 21,621 hectares in 1982 to a staggering 121,741 hectares in 2022. “This rapid urbanisation is a key driver of changes in local and global land use and land cover,” Idris explains. “Monitoring and modelling these changes are crucial for promoting sustainable urban development.”
The implications of this research are far-reaching, particularly for the energy sector. As cities expand, so does the demand for energy infrastructure. Understanding the pace and pattern of urban growth can help energy companies plan and invest more effectively. “This study provides a comprehensive overview of Khartoum’s urban expansion, which can guide energy sector investments and infrastructure development,” Idris notes.
The study also highlights the decrease in bare land from 497,730 hectares in 1982 to 379,896 hectares in 2022, indicating a significant transformation of the landscape. Agricultural areas and water bodies have also varied, reflecting the dynamic nature of urban growth. “The rapid expansion of Khartoum underscores the need for sustainable urban planning and management,” Idris emphasizes.
The accuracy of the classification in the study was assessed using overall accuracy and the standard kappa coefficient, with overall accuracies ranging from 81.4% to 91.0% and the kappa coefficient ranging from 0.70 to 0.88. These high accuracy levels ensure the reliability of the findings, making them a valuable resource for urban planners, policymakers, and investors.
This research not only sheds light on the urban growth of Khartoum but also sets a precedent for similar studies in other rapidly urbanizing cities. “We believe this is the first detailed study offering insight into the growth of this city,” Idris states. “These findings contribute to strengthening the planning and management of Sudan’s largest city.”
As Greater Khartoum continues to grow, the insights provided by this study will be instrumental in shaping sustainable urban development and advancing humankind. The energy sector, in particular, stands to benefit from this research, as it navigates the complexities of urban expansion and the associated energy demands.