In the heart of the Middle East, Iran is grappling with a severe water crisis, and new research is shedding light on the complex interplay between climate change and land use that’s exacerbating the situation. A study published in the *Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies* (translated as “Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies”), led by Nooshdokht Bayat-Afshary from the Department of Civil Engineering at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, offers a stark warning about the future of water scarcity in the region and its potential impact on the energy sector.
Iran, with its 88 million people and vast agricultural lands, is already under immense water stress. Agriculture alone gobbles up over 87% of the nation’s water, with total withdrawals exceeding 80% of renewable resources. The situation is dire, with total water storage declining by over 200 billion cubic meters (BCM) from 2003 to 2019—more than the country consumes annually.
Bayat-Afshary and her team employed machine learning and statistical analysis to simulate actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors across the country. Their projections paint a sobering picture: by 2100, climate change could increase nationwide ETa by up to 7.7%, with agricultural ETa soaring by 23.8%. “Even a 10% reduction in cultivated area cannot offset the impacts of changing climate,” Bayat-Afshary warns.
Under high emissions scenarios, the study predicts a 21% increase in nationwide ETa, translating to 37.1 BCM, and a 39% increase in agricultural ETa, amounting to 17.5 BCM compared to the 2009–2014 baseline. These changes could lead to aquifer deficits increasing by 300 BCM to 578 BCM over the next two decades, depending on climate scenarios.
The implications for the energy sector are significant. Water scarcity can directly impact hydropower generation, which is a crucial component of Iran’s energy mix. Additionally, the energy required for water pumping and treatment could rise, increasing operational costs for energy providers. “Failure to manage demand and improve irrigation efficiency in agriculture will seriously threaten the country’s water and food security,” Bayat-Afshary emphasizes.
This research underscores the urgent need for integrated water resource management strategies that consider both climate change and land use changes. It also highlights the potential of machine learning and ensemble modeling in providing valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders.
As the world grapples with the realities of climate change, studies like this one are crucial for shaping future developments in water management and energy planning. The findings serve as a call to action for Iran and other water-stressed regions to adopt sustainable practices and invest in technologies that can mitigate the impacts of water scarcity.