In the arid landscapes of the United Arab Emirates, where the sun’s intensity and water scarcity pose constant challenges to agriculture, researchers have turned to advanced modeling techniques to secure the future of food production. A recent study, led by Achraf Mamassi of the International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) in Dubai and Université Paris-Saclay in France, has shed light on how climate change and irrigation management can shape the resilience of key crops. Published in the journal ‘Agricultural Water Management’ (translated as ‘Water Management in Agriculture’), the research offers critical insights for the energy sector, which is increasingly intertwined with agricultural sustainability.
The study employed the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model to evaluate the performance of wheat, maize, and potato crops under various climate change scenarios and irrigation strategies. Mamassi and his team simulated crop responses to combined climate and water stressors, using data spanning from 1988 to 2100. The findings are stark: rising temperatures and water stress under medium to high emission scenarios (SSPs 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5) could reduce wheat yields by up to 50% and maize yields by up to 75%. Potato crops, too, face the risk of premature failure, particularly in the latter decades of the century.
“Climate change is not a distant threat; it’s already impacting our agricultural systems,” Mamassi emphasized. “Our study underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate these effects and ensure food security.”
The research highlights the importance of investing in stress-tolerant crops and adapted varieties, such as C4 crops, which are more efficient in hot, arid environments. Additionally, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of using the APSIM model for optimizing irrigation schedules, ensuring efficient water use, and supporting crop scheduling across high-emission scenarios.
For the energy sector, these findings are particularly relevant. As agriculture increasingly relies on advanced technologies and sustainable practices, the demand for energy-efficient solutions will grow. The integration of climate-smart practices and water management strategies can lead to more resilient agricultural systems, reducing the sector’s vulnerability to climate change and ensuring long-term sustainability.
Mamassi’s work not only provides a roadmap for adapting to climate change but also opens avenues for innovation in the energy sector. By leveraging advanced modeling techniques and investing in stress-tolerant crops, stakeholders can mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities in the evolving agricultural landscape.
As the UAE continues to invest in cutting-edge technologies and sustainable practices, this research serves as a crucial guide for policymakers, farmers, and energy sector professionals. The insights gained from the APSIM model-driven assessment can shape future developments, ensuring that agriculture remains resilient and productive in the face of climate change.