In the heart of Ethiopia, the Awash River Basin is a lifeline for agriculture, supporting everything from maize to sugarcane. But as climate change tightens its grip, the basin’s water resources are under threat, and with them, the future of farming in the region. A recent study published in ‘Discover Water’ (translated from Amharic as ‘Discover Water’) sheds light on the challenges ahead, offering a roadmap for resilient irrigation planning.
Led by Elias Meskelu of Adama Science and Technology University, the research employs Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future crop and irrigation water demand under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s. The findings are a wake-up call for the agricultural sector and the energy industry that supports it.
“Climate change is not a distant threat; it’s here, and it’s reshaping our water resources,” Meskelu asserts. The study reveals that maximum temperatures in the Awash Basin could rise by up to 2.8°C by the 2080s under the most severe scenario (SSP5-8.5), while minimum temperatures could increase by up to 3.6°C. Precipitation patterns are also expected to shift, with some areas receiving less rain and others more, creating a patchwork of water scarcity and abundance.
These changes will have profound implications for crop water demand. While wheat may see reductions in water demand due to seasonal shifts, other crops like maize, tomato, onion, tropical fruits, and sugarcane could face increases ranging from 1.7% to 13.3%. Irrigation water demand, in turn, could fluctuate between a 4.6% decrease and a 9.0% increase, putting pressure on the basin’s already strained water resources.
For the energy sector, these projections highlight the need for adaptive strategies. As irrigation demands fluctuate, so too will the energy required to pump and distribute water. Energy providers must prepare for increased demand and potential shortages, while also exploring renewable energy sources to mitigate the environmental impact of agriculture.
The study also underscores the importance of precision agriculture, water-saving technologies, and water storage infrastructure. “We need to think differently about how we use water,” Meskelu notes. “This is not just about surviving climate change; it’s about thriving in a new reality.”
The research provides a comprehensive assessment of crop and irrigation water demand in the Awash Basin, offering reliable estimates to guide agricultural policies and practices. It’s a call to action for farmers, policymakers, and energy providers to collaborate on climate-resilient irrigation planning, crop selection, and water allocation.
As the world grapples with the realities of climate change, studies like this one are crucial. They provide the data and insights needed to make informed decisions, ensuring that our water resources—and the agriculture and energy sectors that depend on them—remain resilient in the face of a changing climate. Published in ‘Discover Water’, this research is a testament to the power of science in shaping a sustainable future.