In the heart of Kazakhstan’s Burabay National Nature Park, Shortandy Lake serves as a vital ecosystem and a critical water resource. However, this endorheic lake, typical of semi-arid regions, faces an uncertain future due to climate change and water abstraction. A recent study published in *Environmental Research: Water* (translated from Russian as “Environmental Research: Water”) sheds light on the potential impacts, offering insights that could shape water management policies and strategies for the energy sector.
Marzhan Baigaliyeva, a researcher at the School of Mining and Geoscience, Nazarbayev University in Astana, Kazakhstan, led the study. Using a water balance model and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) framework, Baigaliyeva and her team projected the lake’s storage variability under different climate change scenarios and water abstraction limits.
The study employed two bias-adjusted Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 ensemble, GFDL-ESM2M (GFDL) and IPSL-CM5A-LR (IPSL), under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. The results revealed that precipitation is projected to increase with the GFDL model and decrease with IPSL. “Rainfall-generated runoff is the primary contributor to future lake storage,” Baigaliyeva explained, “but increases in lake evaporation significantly increase water losses from the lake surface.”
By 2100, the lake volume is projected to decline by 38%–33% under the GFDL model and 77%–82% under the IPSL model, assuming current abstraction limits remain in place. The study underscores the critical role of setting abstraction limits, as their removal could lead to the lake drying up by the 2070s under both RCP scenarios due to the combined pressures of abstraction and climate change.
For the energy sector, these findings are particularly relevant. Water resources are essential for various energy production processes, from hydropower to cooling systems in thermal power plants. Effective water management policies are crucial to ensure the sustainability of these operations. “The findings highlight the significant impact of future climate change on Burabay National Nature Park and the importance of effective water management policies,” Baigaliyeva emphasized.
The study also points out a significant gap in the current understanding of the region’s water dynamics. The lack of observed groundwater data for the BNNP area precludes its representation in the lake water balance model, highlighting the need for enhanced groundwater monitoring. This gap, if addressed, could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the lake’s water balance and inform more effective water management strategies.
As climate change continues to pose challenges to water resources, studies like this one are invaluable. They provide a scientific basis for policymakers and industry leaders to make informed decisions about water management, ensuring the sustainability of both ecosystems and energy production processes. The research by Baigaliyeva and her team is a step forward in this direction, offering crucial insights into the future of water resources in semi-arid regions.