In the heart of Iraq, the city of Kirkuk is grappling with a challenge that echoes across the globe: unregulated urban growth. With an outdated master plan, the city has seen its urban footprint expand from 41.57 km² in 1993 to a staggering 155.5 km² in 2023. To tackle this issue, researchers have turned to advanced urban growth models, offering a glimpse into the future of Kirkuk’s development and its implications for the energy sector.
Dr. Sh. Jabari, from the Department of Geomatics at Babol Noshirvani University of Technology in Iran, led a study that employed two sophisticated models: Cellular Automata Markov chain (CA-MARKOV) and SLEUTH. These models, fed with satellite imagery and land use data, have provided a roadmap for Kirkuk’s urban expansion up to 2037.
The SLEUTH model, in particular, has proven its mettle, achieving an impressive 87% accuracy in predicting Kirkuk’s urban growth. “The SLEUTH model’s ability to incorporate various factors like urban density, road networks, and slope data gives it a clear edge,” Dr. Jabari explained. This model’s predictions for 2037 suggest an expansion to 219.78 km², a significant increase that could have profound implications for infrastructure, services, and the energy sector.
The energy sector, particularly, stands to gain from these insights. As Kirkuk’s urban landscape evolves, so too will its energy demands. Understanding these changes can help energy companies plan for future needs, ensuring a stable and sustainable supply. Moreover, the models’ ability to exclude sensitive areas like oil fields and airports can aid in strategic planning, minimizing disruptions and maximizing efficiency.
Comparing the models’ predictions with Kirkuk’s new master plan revealed discrepancies, particularly in areas of rapid growth. “This highlights the need for adjustments in the master plan to better align with the city’s actual growth patterns,” Dr. Jabari noted. The southeastern and southwestern regions, however, showed promising alignment, suggesting a positive trajectory for these areas.
The study, published in the ‘International Journal of Human Capital in Urban Management’ (translated to English as ‘International Journal of Human Resources in Urban Management’), offers a valuable lesson for cities worldwide. As urbanization continues to accelerate, accurate growth models become increasingly vital. They provide a data-driven approach to planning, ensuring that cities can meet the needs of their growing populations while minimizing environmental impact and maximizing efficiency.
In the words of Dr. Jabari, “This research underscores the importance of using accurate urban growth models for sustainable planning.” As Kirkuk looks towards 2037, these models offer a beacon of guidance, illuminating the path towards a more sustainable and efficient urban future. For the energy sector, this means a unique opportunity to align with urban growth, ensuring a stable and sustainable energy supply for the future.