The Neyshabur-Rokh basin in Iran is facing a silent transformation—one that could ripple across industries from agriculture to energy. A new study by Sepideh Dowlatabadi, a researcher in the Department of Water Engineering at the University of Birjand, reveals how climate change is reshaping the region’s green and blue water resources, with potential consequences for everything from irrigation to hydropower.
Using the WetSpass-M model, Dowlatabadi and her team analyzed 26 years of historical data (1991–2017) and projected near-future trends under moderate climate change scenarios (RCP4.5). Their findings suggest that while total precipitation is expected to rise by about 4.7%, rising temperatures—up nearly 2°C—are altering how that water is stored and used.
“Green water,” the moisture held in soil and vegetation, is projected to increase slightly by 0.55%, but its distribution is shifting eastward, away from key agricultural zones. Meanwhile, “blue water”—the visible water in rivers, lakes, and aquifers—is expected to grow by nearly 6%, concentrated in mountainous areas with rangeland cover. This uneven shift could strain water availability in lowland farming regions while boosting potential for small-scale hydropower in higher elevations.
For the energy sector, this has practical implications. More blue water in upland areas could mean expanded opportunities for run-of-river hydropower, especially during peak flow seasons. Conversely, reduced green water in the east may limit crop irrigation and biomass production, affecting bioenergy feedstocks. The study also highlights the need for adaptive infrastructure planning, as water availability becomes less predictable.
While the research is specific to Iran, its methodology—combining satellite data, climate models, and hydrological mapping—offers a template for water-stressed regions worldwide. As Dowlatabadi notes, understanding these shifts isn’t just academic: “Water is the invisible thread connecting energy, food, and ecosystems. If we don’t plan for these changes, we risk reactive policies instead of proactive solutions.”
Published in *Applied Water Science*, the study underscores a growing reality: water management is no longer just about supply—it’s about adapting to change. And in a warming world, that adaptation begins with knowing where the water will be tomorrow.