A new study by Anusha C. Rajesh from the Dept. of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering at Kerala Agricultural University (KAU) in India reveals how India’s climate patterns could shift dramatically by the end of the 21st century. Using advanced climate models from CMIP6 and analyzing four key scenarios—from moderate to extreme climate pathways—the research projects rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns across the country, with significant regional variations.
Rajesh and her team applied the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test and Sen’s slope test to assess trends in precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperatures across four seasons: Monsoon, Autumn, Winter, and Summer. Their findings, published in *Sustainable Chemistry for Climate Action* (formerly *Sustainable Chemistry & Pharmacy*), indicate a consistent increase in both rainfall and temperature across all scenarios, but with the most dramatic changes under the high-emission SSP585 pathway.
“Under SSP585, we see not just higher rainfall totals, but greater variability—especially during the monsoon,” Rajesh explains. “This could mean more intense wet seasons, with the coefficient of variation in monsoon rainfall reaching 27%.” Such shifts could pose serious challenges for water resource management, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Regionally, the Western part of India may see relatively lower rainfall increases compared to the rest of the country, highlighting the need for localized adaptation strategies. The study underscores that climate change impacts will not be uniform—seasonal and regional differences will be key factors in planning for resilience.
For the energy sector, these findings are particularly relevant. Hydropower generation, thermal plant cooling, and renewable energy integration all depend on reliable water and temperature conditions. Increased monsoon variability, for example, could disrupt hydropower output, while higher temperatures may reduce cooling efficiency at thermal plants.
The research emphasizes the urgency of tailoring climate adaptation strategies to specific seasons and regions. As India continues to expand its energy infrastructure, understanding these trends will be crucial for designing resilient systems that can withstand a changing climate.