In the foothills of the Himalayas, where the Tawi River carves its path through Jammu, a quiet transformation has been unfolding—one that holds lessons for cities across India and beyond. A new study by Rahoof Ahmed of Aligarh Muslim University, published in *Discover Cities* (formerly *नगर खोज*), maps three decades of change in Jammu’s landscape using satellite data and GIS, revealing not just growth, but a reshaping of the land itself.
Using Landsat imagery from 2002, 2014, and 2024, Ahmed and his team applied supervised classification to track six land cover types: agricultural land, built-up areas, dense vegetation, sparse vegetation, fallow land, and water bodies. The results are striking. Built-up land surged from 23% to 40.2% of the area—an increase of 2,499 hectares—while agricultural land first rose from 47.8% to 54.3% before falling back to 35.8%. Dense vegetation halved, and sparse vegetation nearly doubled.
“This isn’t just about urban sprawl,” says Ahmed. “It’s about how land systems interact under pressure. When agricultural land recedes and built-up areas expand, it affects water availability, energy demand, and even microclimates.”
The implications are especially relevant for the energy sector. As cities expand, so does the need for electricity, cooling, and infrastructure—all of which are influenced by land cover. For example, the loss of dense vegetation reduces natural cooling, potentially increasing air conditioning demand. Meanwhile, the shift from agriculture to built-up land alters local water cycles, impacting both supply and drainage needs.
Ahmed’s high-accuracy mapping—with overall accuracies above 94% and Kappa values exceeding 0.91—offers planners a clear view of where growth is happening and where it might be managed better. The study suggests that without intervention, unchecked expansion could erode essential green spaces and strain resources.
“Sustainable urban planning must balance development with conservation,” Ahmed notes. “Protecting agricultural land and strengthening green infrastructure isn’t just environmental—it’s economically smart.”
As cities like Jammu grow, the choices made today will ripple through energy systems, infrastructure planning, and environmental resilience. This research isn’t just a snapshot—it’s a roadmap.