The skyline of Akure, Nigeria, is changing—and fast. Over the past three decades, the city’s built-up areas have more than doubled, swallowing up green spaces as concrete spreads across the landscape. According to new research led by Akinola Adesuji Komolafe of the Department of Remote Sensing and GIS at the Federal University of Technology, this rapid urbanization is not just a matter of aesthetics or land use—it’s reshaping the city’s climate, energy demand, and long-term sustainability.
Using satellite imagery from 1991, 2002, 2015, and 2020, Komolafe and his team mapped how land use and land cover (LULC) have shifted in Akure, a mid-sized Nigerian city experiencing growth typical of many sub-Saharan African urban centers. The findings are stark: built-up areas expanded from 14% in 1991 to 38% in 2020, largely at the expense of vegetation, which declined by about 32%. “We’re seeing a direct trade-off between urban development and natural ecosystems,” Komolafe notes. “As trees and vegetation disappear, the city’s thermal environment changes—and that has real consequences.”
Those consequences are quantified through environmental indices. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dropped significantly, signaling dwindling green cover. Meanwhile, the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) both rose, reflecting the urban heat island effect—a phenomenon where cities become warmer than surrounding rural areas due to human activity and infrastructure. The correlation between rising temperatures and reduced vegetation is especially telling: Komolafe’s team found a strong negative relationship between NDVI and LST (r = −0.71), meaning less greenery leads to more heat. Conversely, areas with more built-up surfaces correlated positively with higher temperatures (r = 0.76).
But the story doesn’t end with past trends. Using the Land Change Modeler, the researchers projected future scenarios: by 2025, built-up areas could reach 46%, and by 2050, they may climb to 58%. “If current trends continue unchecked,” Komolafe warns, “Akure could face significant environmental and infrastructure challenges.”
For the energy sector, these findings carry immediate commercial and operational implications. Rising surface temperatures increase demand for cooling, particularly in residential and commercial buildings. As more of Akure becomes paved and developed, the urban heat island effect intensifies, pushing electricity consumption upward during peak hours. This could strain the local power grid, increase operational costs for utilities, and accelerate investment in energy infrastructure—from grid upgrades to distributed cooling solutions.
For urban planners and policymakers, the data offers a clear warning: unchecked expansion threatens both environmental resilience and energy efficiency. The research underscores the need for integrated planning that balances development with ecosystem preservation. Green roofs, urban forests, and permeable surfaces aren’t just ecological niceties—they’re climate adaptation tools that can reduce cooling loads and lower long-term energy costs.
Published in *Discover Cities* (formerly *Akapo*), the study demonstrates how remote sensing and predictive modeling can guide sustainable urban growth. As Komolafe points out, the tools used—Landsat imagery, NDVI, NDBI, and LST—are accessible and scalable, making this approach replicable in other fast-growing African cities.
The message is clear: the future of Akure’s energy landscape will be shaped not just by policy, but by the very ground beneath its buildings. And if cities across sub-Saharan Africa follow similar trajectories, the lessons learned here could light the way toward smarter, cooler, and more sustainable urban development.